As mining stocks tank, the U.S. could face the largest economic downturn in decades, with a slowdown that could push unemployment rates higher and spark new bouts of recession.
In the longer term, the country’s stock market may be one of the best bets for growth.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI is up about 30 percent so far this year and has surged nearly 1,000 points since the end of the financial crisis.
Inflation-adjusted consumer prices have been rising at a faster rate than most other advanced economies, a sign of a more robust economic recovery.
But the recovery has slowed, with consumer spending and business investment lagging the rest of the economy.
The National Bureau of Economic Research predicts the economy will expand by just 0.4 percent this year.
The Federal Reserve is also forecasting that U.F.O. prices will fall slightly this year, while inflation will likely remain below 2 percent for most of the year.
That’s a significant drop from the 2 percent expansion that President Donald Trump has promised.
That would mark the third straight year that inflation is below 2.5 percent.
“The Fed is really hoping the economy recovers as soon as possible,” said Mark Blyth, an economist at Moody’s Analytics.
“If that happens, the economy is going to rebound really quickly.”
The recovery from the Great Recession ended with a shock of the global economy, with the U!
economy contracting for more than a year.
As the economy regains momentum, a recovery will likely be more gradual.
For example, economists expect the unemployment rate to drop to 6.9 percent in 2018 from 8.3 percent in 2017.
That decline is expected to come as the labor force participation rate, the percentage of people who are employed or looking for work, starts to rise.
The economy will be more flexible and less reliant on large employers like large banks and insurance companies.
That could mean fewer people will lose their jobs, and less pressure to work longer hours.
The U.K., France and Germany have also seen modest but gradual economic recovery, and some economists expect other countries to follow suit.
The unemployment rate for the U